Past couple of days has been unusually dour on Lucknow. The unexpected rains have ensured a resounding re-entry of chill and gloom in the State capital, not known for a harsh February. For the politically, philosophically and psephologically inclined, these could well be signs of things to come.
A prospect pregnant with hope and uncertainty and answering to the name of ‘change’ is perceptible. Slowly but surely the biggest drama at Indian politics’ largest theatre is beginning to play out, and by all accounts it promises to live up to the top billing. Country’s largest state is going to polls and the quadrangular (comprising of ruling BSP, SP, Congress and BJP) clash for authority might well result in some strange, unforeseen post-poll formations, making Delhi 2014 an intricately interesting proposition. First however, the prelude.
The ruling BSP that came to power five seasons ago on strength of its brilliantly crafted social engineering finds itself embroiled in multiple high net worth corruption charges. Many believe that the promises made to the upper castes were conveniently forgotten once Ms. Mayawati assumed office. Her trusted quartet of Shashank Shekhar Singh, Naseemuddin Siddqui, Baburam Kushwaha and Satish Chandra Mishra didn’t do much to alter the inherent caste equations and as the ambivalent populace grew further disenchanted with her, a seemingly dispassionate Mayawati confined herself within the precincts of Mall Avenue, her official residence. Top it with the ever burgeoning NRHM scam that has already consumed a few CMOs, and the heady cocktail is ready to be served. Mayawati’s repeated offensive against a certain Rahul Gandhi hasn’t gone down well with many either. Often seen as a personal vendetta than a political debate, her rancid rhetoric has been repeatedly dismissed by Congress, who has minced no words in calling the current BSP Government the most corrupt ever.
Responding with allegations of widespread corruption in the implementation of MGNREGA scheme, the Congress scion transgressed physical and mental trammels to march into Dalit heartland with a bevy of promises to boot. His rubble- rousing Padyaatra in the dusty epicenter of national politics was an obvious effort to reach out to, and eventually reap the harvest of grassroots. It generated apparent consternation in BSP ranks, already battling anti-incumbency.
Talking of Rahul, it’s his biggest litmus test yet. Given the degree of personal and professional energy he has dutifully invested in these elections, Congress would be contemplating a comeback in the Hindi heartland after a 22-year abeyance. Its desperation is incredulously palpable. From the unabashedly explicit minority (read Muslims) appeasement to ‘caste’ing candidates of a particular pedigree, it has entered ballot battlefield with all its guns blazing. After promising a 9% sub-quota for Muslims and in the process getting a mouthful from the Election Commission, Congress has appointed Union Steel Minister Beni Prasad Verma to gobble Kurmi votes whereas P L Punia, Chairperson of National Commission of Schedule Castes has been entrusted with the task of wresting and arresting the ‘most backward caste’ votes. A fine show here and we might witness a paradigm shift in Rahul Gandhi’s role at Raisina Hills. Expecting Congress to sweep Uttar Pradesh might well be a fantastic chimera, but its role of a possible playmaker cannot be ruled out. It would do well to finish third, and if SP grabs either of the top two slots with a fairly decent margin, a SP-Congress alliance might well be on the cards.
Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, rejuvenated by the exuberance of its very own tech-savvy, environment engineer-heir apparent is busy playing its trusted MY (Muslim-Yadav) card. After snubbing Congress over the sub-quota issue and promising his loyalties with Mulayam (who has ensured 18% sub quota for Muslims), Imam Bukhari has made it clear that appeasement itself is a long drawn process. With English speaking Akhilesh, SP is trying frantically to shed its anti- English, anti- computers image and reposition itself as a modern, youth oriented socialist party. Like Rahul, this is Akhilesh’s first major assignment, and larger, proactive responsibilities might come knocking for the Kannauj MP post polls. His strong anti corruption stance -he denied ticket to tainted DP Yadav- backed by a suave, hands on approach have earned him generous plaudits; but will kind words translate into kinder votes is something perennially perilous to predict. Congress has, more than once vowed that it wouldn’t side with ‘goons’ (read SP) at any cost might be music to many, but a SP- Congress combine in UP would considerably reduce Congress’ dependency on its in- house bête noire, the TMC in Delhi, as a result of which contentious issues that have been pushed to backburner, viz. land acquisition, Pensions Bill, FDI in multibrand retail (a decision on which has been postponed till the election’s results are declared) and the much debated Lokpal Bill can be revived and resolved.
The fourth player in the grandiloquent quadrangular quagmire finds itself enmeshed in the most unwanted situation. Bereft of ideas, devoid of charisma and guilty of political doublespeak, the BJP seems to have developed an eerie knack of shooting at its own feet. The flight to failure took off last year with an ill timed rath yaatra by its restive patriarch, even as its own CMs were facing graft charges. Meanwhile, as talks of rift between Gadkari and Modi gained momentum, the BJP effected a legendary faux pas. It inducted BSP discard and NRHM scam’s prime accused Babu Singh Kushwaha in its ranks, and all hell broke loose. The Congress, rubbing its palms with narcissist-sadist glee jumped on the critics’ bandwagon, even as the BJP appeared a divided house on the issue. It was a welcome relief for BSP too, who, wary of anti incumbency had gone on a sacking spree, and whose anti corruption grandstanding now stood vindicated. The BJP has expectedly opposed the minority sub quota, citing communalization of society and fragmentation within Hindu OBCs as its primary reasons. The pseudo -seculars in doing so, did their reputation no harm, more so when Mr. Advani tried to replay the Hindutva-Ram Temple card on poll eve.
Will the generation old issue still find resonance among masses or will it be summarily debunked to realms of redundancy is an interesting and intriguing prospect. From polarization of electorate on communal lines to prospective fissures within beneficiaries, from policy of promises to promises of policies, from factions within parties to fragmentation of state itself, UP 2012 is set to unravel varying concepts of political opportunism, caste calculus and social algebra, the results of which might well decide the fate, face and façade of Indian polity, come 2014. The innocuous rains in Lucknow might well be the brewing insidious storm.
PS : If Muslims constitute 18% of UP’s population and SC’s 20%, what’s the percentage of Mayawati’s statues in the state?
